Burning of wood & kerosene for cooking, was ok when LPG cylinders weren’t available. Similarly, burning of fossil-fuels to power road transport, was ok when there wasn’t any commercially viable option available. Today, many households have switched to cooking gas, but the switch to electric vehicles is riddled with
misinformation and apprehensions about EV’s catching fire etc. Similar apprehensions were there about cooking gas cylinders bursting, but ultimately common sense must prevail.
I foresee a great transformation in the automobile industry, with the convergence of Mobility / Energy & Technology (MET). Time to replace legacy automobiles (polluting fossil fuel powered Internal Combustion Engines), with electric vehicles powered by renewable energy. The convergence of Mobility / Energy & Technology will transform many more industries and businesses. Legacy automakers also need to transition to ACES (Autonomous / Connected / Electric / Shared), which is going to be challenging.
Let’s start with ground realities in India. Traffic congestion is increasing with rapid urbanisation, and more of our youth are flocking to cities in search of work. Fortunately, Metros are getting built and my insight is that affordable / comfortable last mile mobility to-and-fro bus / metro stations is critical for shared mobility.
Two wheelers still makeup the majority of vehicles on our roads – over 37%, and around 20 million new two- wheelers are sold every year adding to the congestion. This can come down if affordable, comfortable & efficient last mile mobility is made available. And, in my opinion, this is a big opportunity for EV startups.
India will need all types of electric vehicles providing last-mile mobility: Electric Bike Taxis / Electric Trike Taxis (Rickshaws & Autos) / Electric Car Taxis; all catering to different segments of the market.
I find bike-taxis more prevalent in the ASEAN region, pioneered by GoJek & Grab. Bike Taxis are popular in Indonesia, and in countries such as Philippines they have a more comfortable sidecar. These vehicles are also known as trikes, and similar vehicles are also common in Cambodia & Vietnam.
Electric Rickshaws / Autorickshaws & Tuk-Tuks are also common in emerging markets for its affordability. In India we have witnessed a massive surge in adoption, because they are profitable even with low fares and does not demand high voltage charging infrastructure.
Charging downtime is a major issue for fleet operators, so I am happy to see the widespread adoption of swappable batteries for 2 & 3 wheelers. Gogoro, Sun Mobility, Honda Power, Reliance JIO and some other startups, have innovated a lot to launch their battery swapping solution for 2 & 3 wheelers in the market. I hope that we can agree to standards for pack size & communication protocols so that battery swapping becomes ubiquitous in India and will make exports easier too.
India’s EV startups in the 2 & 3-wheeler space have lots of export opportunities to the ASEAN region, Africa & South America.
I am also happy to see ‘all electric fleets’ making their presence in India. This will transform our cityscapes and reduce air pollution & carbon emissions drastically.
As per an analysis by World Business Council for Sustainable Development, 100% adoption of electric ride- hailing cars in India by 2030, will avoid use of 11 billion litres of fossil fuels a year, and result in a reduction of an estimated 12 million tonnes of CO2 emissions annually.
Air pollution is a big issue affecting the health of our citizens, especially in urban areas. Air pollution is a silent killer, causing more than 2 million deaths a year in India. It also leads to health problems like respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, especially in children exposed to high levels of air pollution from road transport.
The market opportunity for affordable / comfortable & eco-friendly last-mile transport globally is humungous. The number of users of ride-hailing services is expected to increase to over 1.45 billion, and the demand for passenger fleet vehicles globally is estimated to be around 12 million before 2030.
Unlike fossil fuels that are owned by a few countries & companies, electricity can be produced by anyone from renewable energy sources. Combining energy storage with mobility, creates new business opportunities, especially micro-businesses. Fortunately, India and most of the emerging markets are blessed with abundant sunshine almost throughout the year.
Solar feedstock is free, it’s abundant in India, setting up of a solar plant is quick & cost of producing electricity from solar is the cheapest compared to any other fuel source.
India is estimated to have 400 million vehicles by 2030, and even if all of them are electric, India can meet the entire demand for electricity from clean energy. I foresee off-grid solar energy, playing an important role in
India’s transition to clean energy, benefiting rural folks and the farming community.
Imagine replacing over $200 billion of fossil fuel imports every year, with energy produced locally. Instead of making fossil fuel exporting countries rich, India can become rich.
India can achieve its vision of energy independence by 2047, according to a new study titled Pathways to Atmanirbhar Bharat (which translates to “self-reliant India”), released by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab).
“Examining India’s three most energy intensive sectors (power, transport, and industry), the study determined that achieving energy independence will generate significant economic, environmental, and energy benefits. This includes $2.5 trillion in consumer savings through 2047, reducing fossil fuel import expenditure by 90% or
$240 billion per year by 2047, enhancing India’s industrial competitiveness globally, and enabling India’s net- zero commitment ahead of schedule.”
It’s imperative that we all work together to achieve India’s energy independence from imported fossil fuels by 2047, and provide a more prosperous future for generations to come.
