Regulations for decarbonization are one of the main drivers of vehicle electrification worldwide. IDTechEx master electric vehicles report, “Electric Vehicles: Land, Sea, and Air 2025-2045“, focuses on the eleven main transportation sectors including passenger cars, commercial vehicles, micromobility, construction and mining, marine, trains, conventional aircrafts, and eVTOL, providing key drivers and forecasts for the individual sectors.
Lithium-ion battery demand for electric vehicles
IDTechEx estimates that in 2024, 44.3 million electric vehicles were sold globally, with cars and three-wheelers making up the two largest segments, followed by two-wheelers.
Global lithium-ion battery demand has more than doubled since 2021, standing at over 1000 GWh in 2024, with the majority of demand stemming from electric cars, specifically at over 85%. In 2027, IDTechEx predicts that global lithium-ion battery demand will exceed 2000 GWh, highlighting the significant growth expected from the electrification of transportation over the next two years. This is also predicted to include the growing impact of other transportation sectors on the global lithium-ion battery demand.
Over the next two decades, battery demand for cars is expected to reach 70 TWh, with trucks being the next largest segment but still only sitting below 7 TWh. During the same period, electric car unit sales are predicted to reach 70 million, with a CAGR of 9.8%, climbing from 14.4 million in 2023, maintaining steady growth, and continuing to dominate the electric vehicle market. IDTechEx’s market report also provides in-depth analysis of the different battery capacities for various electric vehicle types, along with estimates of the required motor output for different models.
Micromobility popularity
Micromobility includes electric motorcycles, electric two-wheelers, electric three-wheelers, and microcars, the sales of which are expected to increase by 2.5 times between 2023 and 2045. Electric two-wheelers are expected to dominate this segment, as their size, low price, and ease of mobility all act as incentives for their uptake, particularly in densely populated areas such as cities, where parking and driving can be largely restricted. Microcars are likely to gain popularity due to similar cost-related factors, but their growth will remain limited compared to two- and three-wheelers.
Electric commercial vehicles
Over 11 million van sales are expected by 2045, while figures for trucks and buses are much less, at 1.7 million and 160,000, respectively. Electric vans could provide long-term cost savings for operators, with lower electricity prices compared to fossil fuel costs, and regulations in the short term also helping to drive their production and adoption.
Contrary to the hopeful future of electric vans, challenges with duty cycles and infrastructure are predicted to limit the growth of electric trucks to some extent, despite expectations that over half of truck sales will be electric by 2045. Electric bus sales also saw early saturation within the Chinese market, peaking in 2016, and are not expected to reach this early peak again until the early 2040s.
Environmental and financial regulations and drivers
The primary drivers for vehicle electrification include tightening CO2 regulations, alongside the ultimate goal of achieving a zero-emission future across the entire transportation sector. In the EU, manufacturers are not permitted to exceed an emission average across all their vehicles, with the goal for 100% of sales to be electric by 2035. Construction and mining markets are mostly driven by TCO drivers, as financial savings are available for operators when moving away from unpredictable fuel costs, despite high initial investments for electric machine uptake.
China currently stands as the largest electric vehicle market. The UK and US markets had limited growth in 2024 compared with previous years, though this growth is expected to pick back up in line with emission regulations. Plug-in hybrid vehicles are also expected to see the most growth in the medium term, eventually phasing into pure electric as zero-emission target deadlines approach.
