According to the latest version of the IEA’s annual Global EV Outlook, more than one in five cars produced globally this year are anticipated to be electric. Rising demand over the next ten years is predicted to completely transform the global auto industry and drastically cut down on the amount of oil used for road transportation.
Global sales of electric cars are predicted to be strong in 2024, hitting over 17 million by the end of the year, according to the most recent Outlook, which was released today. Sales increased by almost 25% in the first quarter of 2023 as compared to the same period the previous year; this growth rate was comparable, albeit from a higher base. Approximately the same amount of electric vehicles were sold worldwide in the first three months of this year as there were in all of 2020.
Sales of electric vehicles are expected to soar to over 10 million in China by 2024, making up almost 45% of total automobile sales in the nation. About one in nine cars sold in the US are expected to be electric, while one in four cars sold in Europe are expected to be electric despite a generally poor forecast for passenger car sales and the phase-out of subsidies in several nations.
On top of a record-breaking 2023, this increase continues. Global sales of electric vehicles surged by 35% to nearly 14 million last year. Demand continued to be concentrated in China, Europe, and the US, but in some emerging economies, like Thailand and Vietnam, where electric cars made up 15% and 10% of all automobiles sold, respectively, growth also picked up speed.
It is anticipated that in the years to come, there will be even more notable changes due to substantial investment in the electric vehicle supply chain, continued regulatory support, and drops in the cost of EVs and their batteries. According to the Outlook, all other cars sold worldwide are expected to be electrified by 2035 if current policy settings remain in place. Meanwhile, by 2035, two out of every three automobiles sold would be electric if nations fulfill their declared energy and climate commitments in full and on schedule. This scenario avoids the need for about 12 million barrels of oil every day, which is equal to the present demand from road transport in China and Europe combined, thanks to the quick adoption of electric vehicles, which range from automobiles to vans, lorries, buses, and two- and three-wheelers.
“Our data clearly shows the ongoing momentum behind electric cars, albeit it is more pronounced in certain markets than others,” stated Fatih Birol, executive director of the IEA. “The worldwide EV revolution seems to be preparing for a new era of expansion, rather than slowing down. The surge in investment in battery production indicates that the electric vehicle supply chain is progressing to fulfill the aspirational development objectives of manufacturers. Consequently, it is anticipated that the percentage of EVs on the road would keep increasing quickly. By 2030, nearly one in three automobiles on Chinese roads and nearly one in five in the US and EU are expected to be electric, based just on current policy settings. This change will have significant effects.
According to the research, manufacturers have made large financial commitments as well as other substantial steps to fulfill governments’ aspirations for stronger EVs. The world’s ability to make batteries for electric vehicles (EVs) is well-positioned to meet demand, even as it climbs dramatically over the next ten years, due to high levels of investment over the last five years. The analysis highlights that the rate at which the transition to electric vehicles occurs may not be steady and will depend on cost.
More than 60% of electric vehicles sold in China in 2023 were already more affordable to purchase than their conventional counterparts. The average cost of buying an internal combustion engine vehicle remained lower in Europe and the US, but rising market competition and advancements in battery technology are predicted to drive down prices in the years to come. The lower running expenses of EVs mean that even with high upfront charges, the original investment eventually pays for itself.
Increased exports of electric vehicles from Chinese automakers, who sold over half of all electric vehicles in 2023, may put further lower pressure on purchasing prices. The more reasonably priced models that were introduced in foreign markets in 2022 and 2023 have already witnessed robust sales for Chinese enterprises, which are also establishing production facilities abroad. This demonstrates how the major economies that produce EVs are different from the old car sector in many ways.
According to the report, maintaining the availability of public charging in line with the sales of electric vehicles is essential for future growth. Globally, the number of public charging stations installed increased by 40% between 2022 and 2023, with faster chargers seeing faster growth than slower ones. However, by 2035, charging networks must double in size in order to fulfill the level of electric vehicle deployment that corresponds with government commitments. However, in order to prevent overstretching of electrical systems due to increased demand for electricity from charging, regulatory support and careful planning are necessary.
The Global EV Policy Explorer and the Global EV Data Explorer go hand in hand with the Global EV Outlook 2024. With the help of these web resources, visitors can interactively investigate global EV statistics, forecasts, and policy initiatives.
